Introduction

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe's energy dependency has become a strategic priority for the European Union (EU). Historically reliant on Russia for gas, oil, and uranium supplies, the EU has progressively sought to reduce this dependency, driven by geopolitical, economic, and environmental considerations. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the continent's vulnerabilities to Kremlin pressures, particularly concerning energy supplies.

A significant turning point occurred on January 1, 2025, when Ukraine ceased the transit of 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually through the Brotherhood pipeline. This symbolic move ended one of the last active land-based routes connecting Russia to Europe. Subsequently, on May 6, 2025, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen presented in Brussels a roadmap to complete the RePowerEU plan, initiated in May 2022. This action plan aims not only to halt Russian hydrocarbon imports but also to reduce overall fossil gas consumption by 2027.

In a context where climate challenges intersect with geopolitical imperatives, this new strategic phase is pivotal for the EU's energy future. Through diversifying sources, developing renewables, and asserting nuclear sovereignty, Europe intends to fully emancipate itself from Russian energy influence. Analyzing this roadmap reveals a dual dynamic: a structural energy reorientation and a consolidation of energy governance tools at the EU level.




I. The EU's Progressive Yet Decisive Move Away from Russian Gas Dependency

A. A Sharp Decline in Dependency Since 2021

At the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia accounted for nearly 45% of the EU's gas imports, approximately 150 billion cubic meters annually. By the end of 2024, this share had already dropped to 19%, with only 52 bcm imported out of a total of 273 bcm. Through an accelerated diversification policy, the EU reduced its needs by 60 bcm over two years. This decline was facilitated by increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States, Qatar, and African countries, as well as a structural decrease in consumption due to energy savings and austerity measures imposed by member states.
On January 1, 2025, Ukraine completely halted transit through the Brotherhood pipeline, ending a historic transit contract renewed in 2020. This cessation eliminated a volume equivalent to 15% of the remaining Russian flows. Brussels seized this rupture to assert an ambitious goal: banning the signing of any new Russian gas import contracts from 2025 and ending all existing imports by 2027. This shift is accompanied by traceability mechanisms to prevent circumvention via third-party actors.


B. A Roadmap Focused on Sobriety and Transition

As part of the RePowerEU plan, the European Commission presented on May 6, 2025, an ambitious roadmap aiming to reduce fossil gas consumption by 40 to 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2027, without merely substituting Russian imports with other suppliers. This strategy rests on three pillars: electrification of uses, development of green hydrogen, and improvement of building energy efficiency.


1. Electrification of Uses

Electrifying industrial and residential sectors is central to this transition. It aims to replace fossil fuels with electricity generated from renewable sources. This entails the widespread deployment of technologies such as heat pumps, electric vehicles, and electrified industrial processes. The Commission also encourages integrating renewables into power grids by simplifying authorization procedures and investing in necessary infrastructure.


2. Development of Green Hydrogen

Green hydrogen, produced by water electrolysis using renewable electricity, is identified as a key energy vector to decarbonize sectors difficult to electrify, such as heavy industry and maritime transport. The RePowerEU plan sets a production target of 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030, supported by investments in electrolyzers and distribution infrastructure. International partnerships are also envisaged to secure green hydrogen supplies.


3. Improvement of Building Energy Efficiency

The building sector represents a significant share of energy consumption in Europe. The roadmap includes measures to enhance building energy efficiency, notably through thermal renovation, installation of efficient heating systems, and use of insulating materials. Member states are invited to develop national energy renovation plans, with EU financial support via the Green Deal and the post-Covid recovery mechanism.


4. Member State Engagement and Financial Support

The success of this energy transition relies on member state engagement. Each country is required to submit, by the end of 2025, a national plan detailing measures to achieve set objectives. The European Commission will provide substantial financial support through Green Deal instruments and the post-Covid recovery mechanism to facilitate project implementation and ensure a fair transition for all EU citizens.


5. Prospects and Challenges

Implementing this roadmap represents a major challenge, necessitating close coordination among EU institutions, national governments, industries, and civil society. Significant efforts will be required to overcome technical, financial, and social obstacles. Nevertheless, this transition also offers substantial opportunities in terms of job creation, technological development, and strengthening Europe's energy sovereignty.




II. A Comprehensive Energy Strategy Including Oil, Nuclear, and Maritime Security

A. Combating Russian Evasion and the “Shadow Fleet”
Since the imposition of EU sanctions against Russia, the latter has implemented a sophisticated strategy to maintain its hydrocarbon exports, notably through a "shadow fleet" of ships operating under flags of convenience and evading international controls. These vessels, often old and poorly maintained, sail without adequate insurance, posing significant environmental and security risks.

In response, the EU has intensified efforts to counter these practices. In February 2025, it adopted a 16th sanctions package, adding 74 additional vessels to the blacklist, bringing the total to 153. These measures aim to restrict these ships' access to European ports and prohibit associated services, such as insurance and financing.
Furthermore, the EU collaborates closely with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to strengthen maritime safety standards and improve ship traceability. This cooperation aims to detect and intercept vessels involved in illicit activities, including clandestine transport of Russian oil.

Under its Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), the EU also considers coordinated measures to monitor critical maritime routes. This initiative includes deploying naval assets to inspect suspicious ships and prevent illegal activities at sea.
Regarding imports, the share of Russian oil in European supplies has significantly decreased, from 27% in 2022 to only 3% in 2025. However, some member states continue to depend on these imports, highlighting the need for concerted action to eliminate remaining dependencies.
Finally, the EU plans to present new legislative proposals to strengthen the regulatory framework and ensure strict enforcement of sanctions. Member states are invited to develop national plans by the end of the year to implement this roadmap and ensure a secure and sustainable energy transition.



B. Towards European Nuclear Sovereignty
The EU's persistent dependence on Russia in the nuclear sector is a major strategic issue. In 2024, seven member states imported over 2,800 tonnes of enriched uranium or nuclear fuel of Russian origin, representing about a quarter of France's enriched uranium needs. This situation underscores the necessity for the EU to strengthen its energy sovereignty in the nuclear sector.


1. A Concerning Structural Dependence
Russia, through its state-owned company Rosatom, exerts considerable influence on the global nuclear market. It holds about 50% of the global nuclear energy market, supplying fuel, maintenance services, and technologies to many countries, including EU members such as Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. This dependence is particularly pronounced for Russian-designed reactors (VVER), which require specific fuel primarily supplied by Rosatom. Additionally, Russia controls a significant share of global uranium enrichment capacities, limiting diversification options for European countries. This situation exposes the EU to geopolitical risks, especially in case of heightened tensions with Russia.


2. EU Initiatives to Reduce Dependence
In response, the European Commission announced in May 2025 a series of measures to restrict imports of Russian nuclear fuel. These include banning the signing of new supply contracts for natural uranium, enriched uranium, or any other nuclear fuel from Russia starting in 2025. This initiative is part of the RePowerEU plan, aiming to reduce the EU's energy dependence on Russia.
Furthermore, the Commission plans to launch a "European Radioisotope Valley" initiative to stimulate local production of medical radioisotopes. This measure will not only strengthen the EU's strategic autonomy in the medical field but also reduce its dependence on Russian imports.


3. Diversification Challenges
Diversifying nuclear fuel supply sources represents a complex challenge for the EU. Although alternatives exist, such as American or French suppliers, their capacity to quickly replace volumes supplied by Russia is limited. Moreover, adapting existing reactors to new fuel types requires technical modifications and approval procedures, which can take several years.
Nevertheless, some member states have already initiated steps to diversify their sources. For example, Bulgaria signed a contract with the American company Westinghouse to supply fuel for its sole Russian-designed nuclear power plant. Similarly, Finland terminated its contract with Rosatom for constructing the Hanhikivi I plant.


4. Towards European Nuclear Sovereignty
Reducing dependence on Russia in the nuclear sector is part of a broader strategy to strengthen the EU's energy sovereignty. This involves not only diversifying supply sources but also developing local capacities for producing nuclear fuel and radioisotopes. The European Radioisotope Valley initiative is a first step in this direction.
Additionally, the European Commission encourages member states to develop national plans to implement this transition, identifying specific needs and necessary actions to reduce their dependence on Russia. These plans must be presented by the end of 2025.



Conclusion
The energy roadmap presented in May 2025 marks a strategic milestone in the EU's shift towards sustainable energy autonomy. The break with Russia is now established, forming part of a broader process of decarbonization, energy resilience, and industrial sovereignty strengthening. By banning new contracts and structurally reducing gas consumption, Europe sends a clear signal: energy dependence is now a strategic risk, not merely an economic choice.